The total capacity of the out-of-hospital prescription market may exceed 400 billion by 2020

With the national medical reform, the separation of medicine is gradually promoted. In recent years, prescription drugs outside the market have developed rapidly in China, and have gradually become the new value of the blue ocean and highland of the new market, and are more and more popular among pharmaceutical companies.
On December 1, the "2016 China Prescription Drug Market Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the Beijing Polaris Data Research Institute pointed out that the growth of the pharmaceutical market continued to slow down, and the county and grassroots markets became the driving force for the growth of the prescription drug market. To promote medicine, the distribution channels of prescription drugs will be greatly changed. Medical power supply suppliers and emerging DTP models have become hot spots in the industry and are growing rapidly.
The report predicts that by 2020, the total production capacity of prescription drugs outside the market will exceed 400 billion yuan.
▌ Health care control is more stringent, and the hospital market growth is weak
According to the report statistics, in 2016, the growth of China's pharmaceutical market (excluding herbal medicines) slowed down, and the overall size was about 1,477.4 billion yuan.
The report said that the health insurance control in the future will be more stringent, the bidding situation will be severe, the consistency evaluation or price quality will exceed most species, the rational use of drugs for auxiliary drugs, anti-infective drugs, the decline in the proportion of drugs, the implementation of national patent drug price negotiations, These policies limit the growth of the pharmaceutical market size.
However, under the influence of the expansion of medical insurance coverage, the launch of new products, the continuous improvement and improvement of medical infrastructure and services, the rapid growth of chronic diseases, the reimbursement of high-value drugs in provinces/autonomous regions, the municipal level, and private investment in healthcare With the rise of the industry, the market size will continue to grow, but the growth will continue to slow down.
Due to various policy factors, the growth force of the prescription drug market in the county and grass-roots markets is growing, while the city-level hospital terminal shows a weak growth momentum, and the retail pharmacy's terminal weight is relatively small, but supported by the prescription outflow policy, it is developing rapidly.
With the improvement of the primary care system and the promotion of the tiered treatment policy, the sales growth of prescription drugs in the community health center accelerated, and the growth rate of the main category was higher than that of the hospital terminal.
of Important Changes in Prescription Drug Distribution Channels
The report pointed out that prescription drugs and non-prescription drugs account for about 85% of prescription drugs, and the market size of prescription drugs is expected to reach 1.6 trillion in 2020. However, with the continuous implementation of relevant policies, the sales channels of pharmaceutical prescription drugs will be greatly changed.
The introduction of a series of documents directly contributed to this change.
The "Notice on Implementing the Key Tasks of the 2014 Medical Reform Reform and Promoting the Service Level and Efficiency of Drug Circulation" calls for the advancement of various forms of reform, including retail pharmacy institutions engaged in outpatient pharmacy services and other medical professional services. In 2016, the “2016 Key Tasks of Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System” prohibited hospitals from restricting the outflow of prescriptions, and patients could choose their own outpatient pharmacies in the hospital, or go to retail pharmacies through prescriptions.
The expected outflow of prescription policies driven by retail terminals will be partially affected by policies that are squeezed by the volume of drug prescriptions at the hospital terminals, and the development of grassroots terminals and online pharmacies will be part of the outflow of prescription drugs.
Purchasing New Deal Documents No. 7 and No. 70, public hospitals have a more stringent impact on drug procurement, continue to have low homicides under bidding pressure, coupled with declining drug ratios, control medical expense growth rates, and other policies that severely wear pressure on prescription drugs in hospitals Living space.
At the same time, in recent years, various provinces and cities have begun to control the use of auxiliary drugs to varying degrees, which has further increased the sales pressure of prescription drugs in hospitals, and has also forced prescription drug companies to seek out-of-hospital channels.